There may not be a more intriguing Tampa Bay Lightning fantasy hockey bounce-back candidate entering the 2026-27 NHL season than Brayden Point.
After three consecutive seasons with at least 40 goals, Point’s production collapsed to 18 goals, 32 assists and 50 points over 63 games in 2025-26. Injuries were a major part of the story, costing him 19 games and disrupting a season that never seemed to find a consistent rhythm.
That down year is exactly why I believe Point could become one of the better value picks in fantasy drafts.
My Brayden Point fantasy hockey projection for 2026-27 is 41 goals, 45 assists and 86 points over approximately 80 games.
That isn’t simply betting on reputation. Point remains positioned between Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov on Tampa Bay’s projected top line, while the Lightning have added John Carlson to an already dangerous power-play mix. NHL.com projects Point for 85 points itself, meaning an 85-plus point rebound isn’t an extreme upside scenario. It is increasingly becoming the reasonable expectation.
For fantasy managers, the bigger question may not be whether Point rebounds. It could be how far his draft position falls because people put too much weight on one injury-plagued season.
Brayden Point
Brayden Point Fantasy Hockey Projection: Why 86 Points Is Within Reach
Point’s 2025-26 numbers deserve context.
He had recorded at least 40 goals in each of the previous three seasons before dropping to 18. Tampa Bay also reported that from Dec. 9 through March 24 last season, Point produced 14 goals and 35 points in 30 games, a stretch the Lightning calculated as roughly a 38-goal, 96-point pace.
That stretch matters to me more than the raw 50-point total.
When evaluating fantasy players coming off injuries, I look for evidence that the underlying offensive ceiling disappeared. With Point, I don’t see that evidence. I see an elite scorer whose season was fragmented by injuries and prolonged finishing struggles.
Point has also acknowledged that he spent the offseason working on creating more shooting opportunities in tight, describing his goal as trying to “increase the scoring zone.”
That is an important detail for fantasy managers because Point’s greatest value comes when he is attacking dangerous areas rather than simply distributing the puck.
My projection isn’t expecting another 51-goal season. It assumes something closer to a normalization of his shooting, health and offensive deployment.
Tampa Bay Lightning Power Play Could Drive Brayden Point’s Fantasy Rebound
The biggest reason I’m willing to push Point into the mid-80s is Tampa Bay’s surrounding talent.
NHL.com’s projected first line currently has Jake Guentzel–Brayden Point–Nikita Kucherov together. Kucherov is coming off a 130-point season, while Guentzel produced career highs with 88 points and 50 assists.
Then there is John Carlson.
Tampa Bay signed Carlson to a two-year contract during the offseason after the veteran defenseman produced 60 points in 71 games between Washington and Anaheim. The Lightning lost Darren Raddysh, who had run a significant portion of their power play, and NHL.com’s early expectation is that Carlson could step into the first unit alongside Kucherov, Point and Guentzel.
Brandon Hagel is another dangerous weapon who could receive increased power-play usage, giving Jon Cooper multiple ways to configure the unit.
Point has historically been lethal in that environment. NHL.com notes that he ranks sixth league-wide with 67 power-play goals over the past five seasons and has recorded at least 30 power-play points three times during that span.
That’s why I see approximately 30-32 power-play points as a reasonable ceiling target if Point stays healthy.
My Brayden Point 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey Prediction
My final projection is:
41 goals
45 assists
86 points
Approximately 80 games played
I would set his practical fantasy range at roughly 74 to 96 points, with 86 as my expected outcome.
The floor reflects legitimate durability concerns after last season. The ceiling recognizes that this is still a player who reached 95 points in 2022-23 and produced back-to-back 90-point seasons before recording 82 points in 2024-25.
My personal observation is that fantasy managers often overcorrect after a disappointing season. Point’s name will understandably carry more risk than it did a year ago, but that risk is precisely what could create draft-day value.
If I’m choosing between Point and another center with similar projected totals but substantially weaker linemates or power-play deployment, I’m taking Point. There aren’t many players being drafted outside the absolute elite tier who have realistic access to Kucherov, Guentzel and Tampa Bay’s first power play.
The 50-point season is worth remembering.
I just wouldn’t build my 2026-27 evaluation around it.
More Tampa Bay Lightning News and Fantasy Hockey Predictions
Looking for more Tampa Bay Lightning news and fantasy hockey analysis? NHLTradeRumor.com covers player projections, breakout candidates, scoring predictions, lineup changes and the latest developments that could impact your fantasy roster.
Think you can build a better team? Join our NHL Fantasy Hockey Pool and test your GM skills against other hockey fans while competing for ultimate bragging rights. You can also find what channel the Lightning game is on TV today, along with game times and broadcast information, on our Tampa Bay Lightning TV schedule.
The post Brayden Point Fantasy Hockey Projection: Is an 86-Point Bounce-Back Coming? appeared first on NHL Trade Rumors.
