Matthew Schaefer might already be one of the most intriguing defensemen in Fantasy Hockey, and I believe his sophomore season could push him into another tier entirely. After producing 23 goals and 36 assists for 59 points in all 82 games as a rookie with the New York Islanders, my 2026-27 projection has Schaefer reaching 22 goals, 48 assists, and 70 points.
Yes, I am projecting a slight decline in goals. But that is not necessarily bad news for fantasy owners. Schaefer fired 222 shots and scored on 10.4% of them last season, while logging an enormous 24:41 per game. He also recorded 18 power-play points despite an Islanders man advantage that finished just 30th in the NHL at 16.5%. That is where I see the biggest opportunity. With Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Brayden Schenn, and potentially a healthy Kyle Palmieri available around him, Schaefer should have significantly more opportunities to pile up assists and power-play production.
Matthew Schaefer Fantasy Hockey Projection for the 2026-27 NHL Season
What makes Schaefer such an unusual fantasy asset is that there is very little evidence the Islanders intend to shelter him. Quite the opposite. He averaged 24:41 during his rookie season, the highest average ice time among NHL rookies, and played all 82 games. Schaefer also finished with eight power-play goals, 18 power-play points and 222 shots on goal.
That tells me his 59-point season was not built on sheltered minutes or a short-term scoring streak. The Islanders were already running a significant portion of their offense through an 18-year-old defenseman.
My projection model starts with Schaefer’s 59-point baseline but does not simply apply an age-related percentage increase. I expect some regression in goal-scoring efficiency, which is why I have him dropping from 23 goals to 22. The upside comes from his playmaking.
The Islanders’ power play converted at only 16.5% last season. Brayden Schenn said after the season that New York had the necessary pieces but needed better puck movement, while Bo Horvat similarly identified excessive perimeter play as an issue. New head coach Pete DeBoer’s staff will have assistant coach Rocky Thompson taking the lead on the power play, giving New York an opportunity to redesign a unit that clearly underperformed its talent level.
If Schaefer’s power-play production climbs from 18 points into the mid-20s, reaching the 65-to-70-point range becomes considerably easier. That is the biggest reason I am comfortable projecting a double-digit increase in his assists.
Matthew Schaefer Career NHL Stats
| Type | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 82 | 23 | 36 | 59 | 13 |
| Playoffs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Why Matthew Schaefer Could Reach 70 Points With the Islanders
There is also a personnel argument supporting the breakout. Barzal remains one of New York’s most creative puck distributors, Horvat provides an excellent shooting option, Schenn brings another established veteran presence, and Palmieri has historically been dangerous when given power-play opportunities. The Islanders also added Matias Maccelli, with general manager Mathieu Darche specifically mentioning his ability to help the team’s top lines and power play.
Schaefer’s fantasy value also extends beyond raw points. A defenseman capable of generating more than 200 shots while contributing heavily on the power play is valuable because his production does not depend entirely on secondary assists. He can create offense himself.
My biggest concern is sophomore regression. Twenty-three goals from a defenseman is extremely difficult to repeat, and opposing teams will enter 2026-27 with an entire season of NHL video showing how Schaefer attacks offensively. That is why I would not project another large increase in goals.
But development rarely happens evenly. Schaefer can become a better NHL player without scoring more goals. If his decision-making improves, the Islanders’ power play becomes merely average instead of one of the league’s weakest units and his elite workload remains intact, his assist total could climb significantly.
My final Matthew Schaefer Fantasy Hockey projection for 2026-27 is 22 goals, 48 assists, and 70 points in 82 games. That would represent an 11-point increase from his rookie season and establish him as one of the premium offensive defensemen fantasy managers should target. I would be comfortable paying aggressively for Schaefer in keeper leagues, dynasty formats, and standard leagues that reward power-play production and shots because the underlying role is already that of a franchise defenseman.
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The post Matthew Schaefer Point Projections 2026-27: New York Islanders Fantasy Outlook appeared first on NHL Trade Rumors.
