Simon Edvinsson can sign an offer sheet, but I do not believe another NHL team can realistically use one to pry him away from the Detroit Red Wings. The bigger question is not whether Detroit will lose the 23-year-old defenseman. It is how much the Red Wings will have to pay to make him part of their long-term core.
As of July 27, 2026, Edvinsson remains an unsigned restricted free agent and is officially offer-sheet eligible. Detroit, however, has approximately $19.57 million in projected salary-cap space. That gives the organization enough flexibility to match a substantial offer without immediately dismantling the rest of its roster. Published reporting has also indicated that the Red Wings are prepared to match an outside offer for Edvinsson.
That is why I see the offer-sheet discussion as negotiating pressure rather than a legitimate exit route. A rival could force Detroit to pay more than it planned, but actually acquiring Edvinsson would require an aggressive contract, valuable draft picks and the belief that the Red Wings would walk away from a foundational defenseman. That final part is extremely difficult to envision.
Why a Simon Edvinsson Offer Sheet Is Unlikely to Beat the Detroit Red Wings
Edvinsson finished the 2025-26 season with nine goals and 25 points in 72 games while averaging 22:21 of ice time. He also posted a 52 percent shot-attempt share and a 51 percent expected-goal share at five-on-five, according to PuckPedia. Those numbers are important because they show that his value is not limited to traditional scoring totals.
He is a 6-foot-6, left-shot defenseman who can skate, defend through transition and handle difficult minutes against skilled forwards. Players with that combination of size, mobility, age and top-pair potential rarely become available. Detroit selected him sixth overall in the 2021 NHL Draft, and he has already grown into one of the most important pieces of its blue line.
Longtime Red Wings reporter Ansar Khan recently indicated that the organization was “prepared to match whatever he received” if Edvinsson signed an offer sheet. That position makes sense when Detroit’s available cap space and Edvinsson’s organizational importance are considered together.
My view: A team would not merely be offering Edvinsson a contract. It would be attempting to convince Detroit to accept draft-pick compensation instead of keeping a 23-year-old top-pair defenseman. The contract would have to become uncomfortable enough that the Red Wings preferred futures over a player they have already spent five years developing.
What Should the Red Wings Pay Simon Edvinsson?
Jamie Drysdale’s four-year contract carrying a $6.5 million average annual value creates a useful lower comparable. Brandt Clarke’s five-year, $37 million contract with the Los Angeles Kings, an average of $7.4 million per season provides another important benchmark. Detroit also has an internal comparison in Moritz Seider, whose seven-year contract carries an $8.55 million cap hit.
Edvinsson did not match Clarke’s 40-point season or Drysdale’s 32 points, but he played heavier minutes than either player and received very little first-unit power-play time. His contract value should therefore be based more heavily on his even-strength impact, defensive responsibility and future top-pair projection than on raw point production.
| Valuation factor | Estimated adjustment | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Brandt Clarke baseline | $7.40 million | Recent five-year contract for a 23-year-old defenseman from the same draft class. |
| Top-pair workload | +$450,000 | Edvinsson averaged more than 22 minutes per game for Detroit. |
| Even-strength impact | +$350,000 | Positive shot and expected-goal results in a demanding role. |
| Lower offensive production | -$350,000 | His 25 points were below the offensive totals produced by Clarke and Drysdale. |
| Salary-cap and term premium | +$750,000 | A rising cap increases the price of buying unrestricted-free-agent seasons. |
| Detroit internal market | +$100,000 | A new deal must be evaluated against Seider’s $8.55 million cap hit. |
| Model midpoint | $8.70 million | Projected long-term annual value before contract structure and bonuses. |
My preferred outcome for the Detroit Red Wings would be a seven-year contract in the range of $8.6 million to $8.9 million per season. A midpoint of approximately seven years and $8.7 million would reward Edvinsson for his current role while giving Detroit cost certainty as the NHL salary cap continues to increase.
A shorter bridge contract could land closer to $5.75 million or $6.25 million annually, but that would create another major negotiation before Edvinsson reaches unrestricted free agency. Detroit should be trying to purchase prime seasons now rather than betting that he will become less expensive later.
Simon Edvinsson Career NHL Stats
| Type | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 175 | 19 | 41 | 60 | 17 |
| Playoffs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The Offer-Sheet Calculation That Protects Detroit
The most overlooked element in the Edvinsson discussion is how offer-sheet compensation is calculated. For compensation purposes, the contract’s total value is divided by its actual length or five years—whichever number is lower.
That means a six-year offer sheet can carry a much larger compensation value than its actual salary-cap hit. For example, a six-year contract paying Edvinsson $8 million per season would have a normal cap hit of $8 million. However, its $48 million total value would be divided by five for compensation purposes, producing a compensation value of $9.6 million.
Under the 2026 thresholds, that would require the signing team to surrender two first-round picks, one second-round pick and one third-round pick. Once the compensation value exceeds $11,939,166, the price rises to four first-round picks.
| Offer-sheet contract | Compensation AAV | Draft-pick cost | Detroit cap space after matching |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 years × $8.8 million | $8.80 million | First-, second- and third-round picks | $10.77 million |
| 5 years × $9.5 million | $9.50 million | First-, second- and third-round picks | $10.07 million |
| 5 years × $9.6 million | $9.60 million | Two firsts, one second and one third | $9.97 million |
| 6 years × $8 million | $9.60 million | Two firsts, one second and one third | $11.57 million |
| 6 years × $10 million | $12 million | Four first-round picks | $9.57 million |
Salary-cap figures are estimates based on Detroit’s projected $19,572,084 in available cap space before signing Edvinsson. The calculations do not account for subsequent trades, call-ups, injuries or additional signings.
My Verdict on the Simon Edvinsson Offer-Sheet Rumours
I would be surprised if Simon Edvinsson signed an offer sheet, and I would be even more surprised if the Detroit Red Wings declined to match it.
Detroit’s changing front-office structure and the uncertainty surrounding Dylan Larkin have understandably dominated the conversation. Steve Yzerman’s move from general manager to a senior advisory position has also placed more pressure on the organization’s next hockey-operations leader. However, those developments make retaining Edvinsson more important—not less important.
The Red Wings cannot afford to create another major hole by losing a young defenseman who is already playing top-pair minutes. An offer sheet could accelerate negotiations or increase Edvinsson’s eventual cap hit, but the combination of Detroit’s cap space and the required draft compensation makes a successful attempt unlikely.
The number I would watch is approximately $8.7 million per season on a seven-year contract. That would place Edvinsson slightly above Seider’s existing cap hit, but the difference can be justified by salary-cap growth and the unrestricted-free-agent seasons Detroit would be purchasing.
Anything approaching $9.5 million would be more difficult to digest. Even then, Detroit could match and still retain approximately $10 million in projected space. A rival would therefore need to make an offer so excessive that it risks damaging its own cap structure and sacrificing premium draft capital.
That is why the most likely outcome remains straightforward: Edvinsson signs a major contract with the Detroit Red Wings and becomes one of the central players tasked with leading the franchise into its next era.
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