The Chicago Blackhawks may not lose Connor Bedard to an offer sheet, but their decision to let his contract negotiations reach restricted free agency could still prove enormously expensive.
Philadelphia’s stunning five-year, $90-million offer sheet for Anaheim Ducks center Leo Carlsson has established an $18-million benchmark for the NHL’s elite young forwards. That matters for Chicago because Bedard has been more productive than Carlsson despite playing with a weaker supporting cast. Before the Carlsson offer sheet, an eight-year Bedard contract carrying an average annual value between $13 million and $16 million appeared realistic. That negotiating window may now be closed.
Chicago Blackhawks insider Ben Pope reports that Bedard, Carlsson and Columbus Blue Jackets center Adam Fantilli had effectively been waiting for someone to establish the market. Carlsson has now done exactly that, and in a way that could add tens of millions of dollars to Bedard’s next contract.
Connor Bedard Career NHL Stats
| Type | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 219 | 75 | 128 | 203 | -98 |
| Playoffs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Leo Carlsson’s $18 Million Offer Sheet Reset the Connor Bedard Market
Carlsson agreed to a five-year, $90-million offer sheet with the Philadelphia Flyers, carrying an $18-million annual cap hit. Anaheim can match the contract and retain him or decline to match and receive Philadelphia’s next four first-round selections. Either way, Carlsson will play under the $18-million agreement.
That is the problem for Blackhawks general manager Kyle Davidson.
Bedard recorded 30 goals and 45 assists for 75 points in 69 games last season. Carlsson finished with 29 goals and 38 assists for 67 points in 70 games. Over their first three NHL seasons, Bedard has accumulated 203 points in 219 games, compared with Carlsson’s 141 points in 201 appearances.
Contract negotiations are not determined solely by point totals. Carlsson brings size, two-way value and postseason production. However, Bedard’s representatives can now make a straightforward argument: if Carlsson is worth $18 million annually, why should Chicago’s franchise player accept considerably less?
Pope previously placed Bedard’s likely eight-year cap hit between $13 million and $16 million. Following the Carlsson offer sheet, Bedard’s camp has a market comparable supporting an asking price of $18 million or more. The maximum individual salary under the NHL’s $104-million cap is $20.8 million.
How Much Could Waiting Cost the Chicago Blackhawks?
Using the NHL’s $104-million salary-cap ceiling, here is our salary-cap model for several possible eight-year Bedard contracts:
| Annual cap hit | Share of $104M cap | Eight-year value |
|---|---|---|
| $13 million | 12.5% | $104 million |
| $16 million | 15.4% | $128 million |
| $18 million | 17.3% | $144 million |
| $20.8 million | 20.0% | $166.4 million |
If Chicago could previously have completed an eight-year deal at $16 million annually, an increase to $18 million would cost the organization another $16 million over the contract’s lifetime.
If the Blackhawks once had an opportunity to sign Bedard closer to $13 million, the difference would be $40 million over eight years. An agreement at the league maximum would be between $38.4 million and $62.4 million more expensive than the previously reported range.
Those are not predictions that Bedard will receive the maximum. They demonstrate how quickly delaying a franchise-defining negotiation can become costly when another team unexpectedly resets the market.
A Connor Bedard Offer Sheet Is Possible but Still Unlikely
The most likely outcome remains Bedard signing with the Chicago Blackhawks.
Bedard has repeatedly indicated that he believes in the franchise’s direction and intends to remain in Chicago for the long term. Pope also noted that Bedard and Davidson communicate regularly, while Bedard generally appears uninterested in creating unnecessary drama. The two sides had exchanged financial numbers and were actively negotiating before free agency opened.
Chicago would also almost certainly match any offer sheet. A rival club would need Bedard to agree to the contract, possess the required draft selections and accept the likelihood that its offer would only force the Blackhawks to spend more money.
My read is that the real danger is not Bedard leaving Chicago. It is the Blackhawks losing leverage.
The Carlsson contract gives Bedard’s representatives a powerful comparable and removes much of Chicago’s ability to argue that an $18-million cap hit is unprecedented for a player coming off an entry-level contract. Davidson can emphasize that accepting slightly less would give the organization greater flexibility to surround Bedard with championship-level talent, but the definition of “slightly less” has changed.
Before Philadelphia’s offer sheet, a deal around $14 million or $15 million might have looked like a major commitment from the Blackhawks. Today, the same contract could be presented as a substantial hometown discount.
That is why waiting may have cost Chicago millions. The Blackhawks will probably keep their franchise cornerstone, but retaining him could now consume a significantly larger percentage of their salary cap for years to come.
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