We are officially two days away from the final Team USA roster reveal for the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan, and the pressure cooker is whistling. On the latest edition of Frankly Hockey, Frank Seravalli, sat down with TSN’s Director of Scouting, Craig Button, to hammer out the final projection for the Americans.
While we all agree that Team USA has closed the gap on Canada, the philosophy on how to build this team is causing some massive divides. Bill Guerin has made it clear: he wants size, brawn, and checkers. But as Craig Button rightfully pointed out during the show, “If you can’t check, this tournament isn’t for you? Good. Fall short again. You need goals.”
Team USA Olympic Roster Projection
Projected Olympic Roster
The Forward Dilemma: Size vs. Snipers
The biggest point of contention in the projection room was Montreal’s Cole Caufield. Frank left him off, citing Guerin’s emphasis on heavy hockey and questioning if a pure goal-scorer who struggles defensively can survive a “big boy tournament.”
I strongly disagree. You need an electric lightning bolt in a short tournament. I have Caufield on my roster because he can score from 40 feet out—something this roster lacks outside of Auston Matthews. When you pair that shooting threat with a “unicorn” like Matthew Knies, who brings that unique blend of physicality and skill, and a massive center like Tage Thompson, you create a line that is impossible to match up against.
They also reached a consensus on Jack Hughes: he cannot play the wing. He struggled there in the Four Nations Face-Off. To get the best out of Hughes, he needs the middle of the ice to use his agility. If that means moving a guy like Thompson to the flank, so be it.
The Adam Fox Debate
Perhaps the most shocking debate from the projection room was the status of Adam Fox. A few years ago, leaving a Norris Trophy winner off Team USA would be unthinkable.
However, the emergence of Jake Sanderson and Brock Faber has changed the math. We need defenders who can skate stride-for-stride with the likes of McDavid and MacKinnon. Fox has looked a step slower recently, and in a tournament played on Olympic-sized intensity (if not ice surface), you cannot hide. While our visual projection above includes him due to his pedigree, they debated heavily if the defensive suffocating ability of Jaccob Slavin—despite his recent injury—might be more valuable in a 2-1 game.
The “Double Check Mark” Advantage
If there is one area where the US is losing no sleep, it’s between the pipes. Craig Button called it a “double check mark” advantage over Canada. With Connor Hellebuyck, Jake Oettinger, and Jeremy Swayman, the Americans possess the three best goaltenders in the tournament.
While Canada scrambles to find a hot hand among Binnington or Thompson, the US has three legitimate Vezina-caliber options. This is the equalizer. Canada might have the edge in forward depth with McDavid, Celebrini, and Crosby, but if Hellebuyck plays to his MVP standard, the US has the formula to steal Gold in Milan.
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The post Projecting Team USA’s 2026 Olympic Roster: The Snubs, The Unicorns, and The Gold Medal Formula appeared first on NHL Trade Rumors.
