If there is one thing we have learned about Dallas Stars General Manager Jim Nill over the years, it’s that he usually operates with a quiet, calculated confidence. But as we approach the summer of 2026, the math suggests that confidence is going to be tested like never before. The topic at hand? Jason Robertson’s impending restricted free agency.
Robertson is currently playing like a man possessed. At 26 years old, he has 31 points in just 24 games, putting him on a dazzling 106-point pace (48 goals, 58 assists). In a vacuum, you hand that player a blank check. But the Stars aren’t operating in a vacuum—they are operating in a salary cap hell of their own making.
The Cost of Contention: Breaking Down the Cap
Here is my personal insight: The acquisition of Mikko Rantanen was a massive swing for the fences, but his $12 million AAV set a dangerous internal benchmark. Elliotte Friedman reports that Nill remains confident a deal will get done, but let’s look at the reality. Robertson sees Rantanen’s paycheck across the locker room and, rightfully, will demand parity. He is performing at the same elite level.
If Robertson secures a matching $12 million deal, the Stars will have $24 million tied up in just two wingers. When you factor in the long-term, big-money deals already on the books for Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley, and Jake Oettinger, the roster becomes incredibly top-heavy.
We are looking at a scenario where the Stars have the best top-six in the NHL, but potentially a depleted bottom-six and defensive depth chart due to cap constraints. Nill is a wizard at managing assets, but keeping Robertson might mean saying goodbye to another core piece to make the money work. It’s a high-stakes game of poker, and Robertson holds all the aces right now.
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The post The $12M Standoff: Can Dallas Keep Both Rantanen and Robertson? appeared first on NHL Trade Rumors.
