The Boston Bruins enter the 2026-27 NHL season as one of the hardest teams in the Eastern Conference to project. They won 45 games and produced 100 points last season, yet I am not convinced another 100-point year should be treated as the baseline.
My projection is 43-29-12 for 98 points, which would put Boston fifth in the Atlantic Division and directly on the Eastern Conference wild-card bubble. Remember that the NHL schedule has expanded to 84 games for 2026-27, Boston has 42 home dates so a 98-point projection represents a meaningful step backward in points percentage from last season.
That might sound pessimistic considering the Bruins added JJ Peterka and strengthened the right side of their defense. But there is a reason I’m cautious: Boston’s 100-point season was much stronger in the standings than several of its five-on-five indicators suggested.
The ceiling remains high because David Pastrnak can drive an elite offense, Jeremy Swayman can steal games, Charlie McAvoy remains a legitimate No. 1 defenseman and James Hagens could become an impact player surprisingly quickly. But the Atlantic Division leaves almost no room for regression.
Boston Bruins Team Preview
Boston’s roster looks deeper than it did a year ago, but the fundamental question has not disappeared: who is the Bruins’ true No. 1 center?
NHL.com identified that issue as Boston’s biggest remaining need after the offseason. Pavel Zacha is coming off a career-high 30 goals and 65 points, Elias Lindholm remains capable of handling difficult minutes, Fraser Minten is developing and Hagens may eventually become the answer. But none enters September as an established elite first-line NHL center.
The Bruins can compensate on the wings.
Pastrnak recorded 29 goals and 71 assists for 100 points in 77 games, his fourth consecutive 100-point season. Morgan Geekie’s 39 goals led Boston, and JJ Peterka gives Marco Sturm another legitimate attacking threat. Peterka scored 25 goals and 47 points for Utah last season after producing a career-high 68 points with Buffalo in 2024-25.
My read on this roster: Peterka matters because opponents can no longer devote quite as much attention to Pastrnak without giving another transition scorer room to attack.
Defense is more complicated.
McAvoy posted a career-high 61 points in 69 games, but he will miss the first six regular-season games while serving his NHL suspension stemming from Boston’s playoff series against Buffalo. The Bruins therefore need immediate contributions from Will Borgen, Connor Clifton, Hampus Lindholm, Nikita Zadorov and a crowded group that also includes Jonathan Aspirot, Mason Lohrei, Henri Jokiharju, Jordan Harris and prospect Frederic Brunet.
The strongest part of the roster may still be in goal. Swayman was a Vezina Trophy finalist last season, led the NHL with 38 quality starts and won a career-high 31 games. Michael DiPietro is expected to replace Joonas Korpisalo after winning his second consecutive AHL goalie of the year award following a 34-8-1 season with a .930 save percentage for Providence.
Boston Bruins Offseason Changes for 2026-27: Peterka Arrives, Defense Gets Deeper
Boston did not conduct a rebuild. Don Sweeney made moves consistent with a team that believes its competitive window remains open.
Players Added
JJ Peterka – LW: Acquired from the Utah Mammoth for the No. 23 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft and a conditional 2028 first-round pick. He is signed at a $7.7 million cap hit and projects as a top-line/top-power-play winger.
Will Borgen – D: Acquired from the New York Rangers for a 2027 second-round pick and conditional 2028 third-rounder. Borgen averaged 18:03 while playing 75 games for New York last season and gives Boston another physical right-shot option.
Connor Clifton – D: Returned to Boston on a two-year, $4.5 million contract carrying a $2.25 million annual cap hit. Clifton should provide familiarity, physicality and third-pair stability.
James Hagens – F: Not an offseason acquisition, but effectively an important addition to the full-season roster. The 2025 No. 7 pick made his NHL debut late last season after recording 47 points in 34 games at Boston College. NHL.com expects him to make the team.
Players Who Left
Viktor Arvidsson – Detroit Red Wings: Arvidsson signed a two-year, $10 million deal in Detroit after producing 25 goals and 54 points in 69 games for Boston. That is meaningful offense to replace.
Joonas Korpisalo – New York Rangers: Traded for prospect Kalle Vaisanen and a 2028 fourth-round pick. Korpisalo went 14-9-6 with an .894 save percentage, opening the backup role for DiPietro.
Andrew Peeke – Utah Mammoth: Signed a one-year deal with Utah after leading Boston with 135 blocked shots. Borgen is essentially being asked to replace much of Peeke’s defensive workload.
Other organizational departures included Riley Tufte, Matej Blumel, Georgii Merkulov and several depth players, but they are less important to the opening-night NHL projection.
Overall, I view the offseason as a modest upgrade. Peterka is younger and has considerably more offensive upside than the departed Arvidsson, while Boston added defensive depth. The cost, however, was significant draft capital.
Boston Bruins 2025-26 Top Five Scorers
David Pastrnak finished 32 points clear of Boston’s second-leading scorer. Geekie and Zacha both delivered career-level finishing seasons, while McAvoy provided elite production from the blue line.
The important takeaway is not simply that Pastrnak carried the offense. Boston had four players reach 60 points, but two major questions follow those totals into 2026-27: can Zacha and Geekie maintain unusually high shooting percentages, and can Peterka replace Arvidsson’s 25 goals without sacrificing the lineup’s defensive structure?
What Will Define the Boston Bruins 2026-27 Season?
The statistic that worries me most is Boston’s five-on-five territorial profile.
The Bruins scored 268 goals last season and finished with a 23.4 percent power play, but their five-on-five expected-goal numbers told a different story. Hockey-Reference credits Boston with 157.5 expected goals for and 180.7 expected goals against at five-on-five. The Bruins had a 49.5 percent Corsi share, 48.1 percent scoring-chance share and only 45.2 percent of high-danger chances. Their five-on-five PDO was 101.9, supported by a .922 save percentage.
That combination matters.
Boston was finishing chances efficiently while Swayman erased a meaningful amount of defensive leakage. Elite goaltending can absolutely remain part of the Bruins’ identity, but building a projection that assumes another season of getting out-chanced in dangerous areas while receiving elite finishing and goaltending would be aggressive.
The penalty kill also finished at just 76.98 percent, compared with a 23.4 percent power play. Improving the PK could offset some expected five-on-five regression.
My biggest concern: Boston still has too many stretches where Pastrnak has to manufacture offense rather than merely finish it.
The player who could change everything: James Hagens. If Hagens looks like a legitimate top-six forward immediately, Boston’s forward ceiling changes substantially.
The offseason move I like most: Peterka. At 24, he fits both the Pastrnak-era competitive window and a younger Bruins core.
Projected Boston Bruins 2026-27 Lineup
This is a projected lineup, not a confirmed opening-night roster. It closely follows NHL.com’s current projection, with Boston still carrying enough extra NHL-caliber defensemen to make further roster movement possible.
Forwards
JJ Peterka – Pavel Zacha – David Pastrnak
Marat Khusnutdinov – Elias Lindholm – Morgan Geekie
Casey Mittelstadt – Fraser Minten – James Hagens
Tanner Jeannot – Sean Kuraly – Mark Kastelic
Defense
Jonathan Aspirot – Charlie McAvoy
Hampus Lindholm – Will Borgen
Nikita Zadorov – Connor Clifton
Goalies
Jeremy Swayman
Michael DiPietro
McAvoy’s six-game suspension means the actual opening-week defensive combinations will differ.
Boston Bruins 2026-27 Point Projection
Projected Record: 43-29-12
Projected Points: 98
Projected Atlantic Division Finish: 5th
Projected Eastern Conference Standing: 9th
Playoff Prediction: Wild-card battle – projected narrowly outside
The math checks: 43 wins x 2 = 86 points, plus 12 overtime/shootout losses = 98 points across 84 games.
The reason I’m lower than last season’s 100 points despite Peterka’s arrival is regression risk.
Geekie shot 21.5 percent last season. Zacha finished at 22.9 percent. Boston’s overall shooting percentage was 12.1 percent, while the five-on-five expected-goal differential was significantly negative.
Peterka and Hagens should add offense, and Swayman gives Boston a goaltending advantage in many matchups. But I’m not comfortable projecting the Bruins above Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Florida and Montreal when all four possess either superior top-end offensive depth, younger high-end talent or significant offseason upside.
2026-27 Atlantic Division Standings Prediction
My projected order is:
- Tampa Bay Lightning – 109
- Buffalo Sabres – 106
- Florida Panthers – 104
- Montreal Canadiens – 101
- Boston Bruins – 98
- Ottawa Senators – 96
- Detroit Red Wings – 90
- Toronto Maple Leafs – 86
This is not simply last year’s standings reordered. Buffalo won the Atlantic with 50 victories last season, Tampa also won 50, and Montreal reached the Eastern Conference Final. Florida then responded to missing the playoffs by acquiring Brady Tkachuk, while Tampa added John Carlson. Ottawa traded Brady Tkachuk but added William Eklund and Andre Burakovsky. Toronto is undergoing a significant makeover around No. 1 pick Gavin McKenna and Sergei Bobrovsky.
There are very few easy points available inside this division.
Boston Bruins Salary Cap Outlook
PuckPedia currently lists Boston with approximately $5.39 million in projected cap space, a projected cap hit of $98.61 million against the $104 million ceiling and a full 23-player active roster. If that structure remained intact through the season, PuckPedia’s projection shows the Bruins potentially building roughly $24.9 million of deadline cap space.
Pastrnak carries Boston’s largest cap hit at $11.25 million, followed by McAvoy at $9.5 million, Swayman at $8.25 million, Elias Lindholm at $7.75 million and Peterka at $7.7 million.
The more interesting decisions concern 2027.
Zacha, Casey Mittelstadt, Sean Kuraly, Michael Eyssimont and DiPietro can become unrestricted free agents. Minten, Marat Khusnutdinov and Mason Lohrei are among Boston’s notable pending RFAs. Don Sweeney publicly said before the draft that his goal is to extend Zacha.
Boston therefore possesses genuine deadline flexibility, but the front office also has to decide how much of the current middle of the roster should be retained long term.
2026-27 Boston Bruins Team Outlook Model
The NHLTradeRumor.com Team Outlook Model uses a simple 1-10 editorial score across eight categories and averages them equally. It is an original analysis tool for this preview, not a third-party NHL model.
Boston scores 7.4/10 overall.
Goaltending is the strongest category because of Swayman. Offense receives a boost from Pastrnak, Peterka and Geekie, while the prospect score reflects Hagens, Minten, Brunet and organizational depth. Defense and special teams are held down by last year’s five-on-five chance suppression and penalty kill.
Boston Bruins Trade Value Watch
This is a trade-value watch list, not a report that Boston is actively shopping these players.
Pavel Zacha is the most interesting case. He is 29, coming off a 65-point season, plays center and wing and carries only a $4.75 million cap hit before becoming UFA eligible in 2027. That is exactly why extending him makes sense, and exactly why his value could become significant if extension talks were ever to stall.
Casey Mittelstadt is another 2027 UFA at $5.75 million. Mason Lohrei is younger and under team control as a pending RFA, but Boston’s defensive logjam makes his role worth watching.
Final Boston Bruins 2026-27 Prediction
Projected Record: 43-29-12
Projected Points: 98
Division Finish: 5th Atlantic
Playoff Prediction: Wild-card battle; projected narrowly outside
Stanley Cup Outlook: Dangerous if they qualify, but not one of my preseason Cup favorites
Biggest X-Factor: James Hagens
My projection should not be mistaken for saying Boston has declined organizationally. I actually think the roster is better constructed than it was entering last season.
What stands out to me is how unforgiving the context has become.
For Boston to outperform 98 points, Peterka needs to provide another legitimate scoring engine, Hagens or Minten needs to move the center hierarchy forward, the defense must reduce high-danger opportunities, and Swayman needs to remain an upper-tier starter without being asked to cover structural problems every night.
If those things happen together, 100-plus points and another playoff appearance are realistic.
If the five-on-five process remains mediocre and last season’s finishing percentages cool off, Boston could become one of the best teams in the NHL to miss the postseason.
Bruins fans following the season can naturally move from this preview into the site’s Boston Bruins news and trade rumors, Boston Bruins TV schedule, Boston Bruins salary cap, NHL fantasy hockey projections and broader NHL trade rumors coverage as the season develops.
The post Boston Bruins Season Preview 2026-27: Roster Changes, Predictions and Playoff Outlook appeared first on NHL Trade Rumors.
