Jason Robertson enters the 2026-27 NHL season with a realistic opportunity to return to the 100-point club, and my fantasy hockey projection has him getting there exactly.
My Jason Robertson point projection for 2026-27 is 44 goals and 56 assists for 100 points in 82 games.
Robertson is coming off an outstanding season in which he recorded 45 goals and 51 assists for 96 points. He also finished with 294 shots, 15 power-play goals and 41 power-play points. Those numbers placed him among the NHL’s top 10 in several major offensive categories, including goals, points, power-play points and shots on goal.
The most encouraging part for fantasy managers is that Robertson’s production was not built on limited minutes or an unsustainable lack of shot volume. He averaged more than 20 minutes per game, generated nearly 300 shots and maintained a major role on one of the NHL’s most dangerous power-play units.
Dallas can surround Robertson with Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston, Matt Duchene and Miro Heiskanen when loading up its top power-play group. That collection of shooting, passing and puck-retrieval talent gives Robertson one of the safest offensive environments in fantasy hockey.
Why Jason Robertson Can Reach 100 Points for the Dallas Stars
Robertson scored on 15.3 percent of his 294 shots last season. That is an excellent conversion rate, but it is not unreasonable for a player with his release, positioning and history of finishing around the net.
For my projection, I am expecting Robertson to finish somewhere between 290 and 305 shots. Even if his shooting percentage falls slightly, that volume should keep him comfortably above 40 goals. A projection of 44 goals accounts for some natural regression while still recognizing that Robertson has now established himself as a perennial elite scorer.
His assist projection is where I see the potential increase.
Playing with Rantanen and Johnston gives Robertson more opportunities to collect secondary assists and create offence off sustained zone pressure. Dallas no longer needs Robertson to be the only primary finisher on his unit. Opposing penalty kills must respect several legitimate shooting threats, opening passing lanes and creating more rebounds around the crease.
My personal observation is that Robertson’s fantasy value is sometimes underestimated because his game does not always look explosive. He is not entirely dependent on rush chances or highlight-reel individual plays. He quietly finds open ice, arrives in scoring areas at the right time and releases the puck before goaltenders can establish their positioning.
That style tends to translate into consistent regular-season production.
Jason Robertson Fantasy Projection: 44 Goals, 56 Assists and 100 Points
My final projection for Robertson is:
Games played: 82
Goals: 44
Assists: 56
Points: 100
Projected shots: 298
Projected power-play points: 37
The 41 power-play points Robertson recorded last season may be difficult to repeat. Power-play production can fluctuate because of injuries, penalties drawn and year-to-year shooting percentages. I have therefore projected a small decline to 37 power-play points.
However, Robertson can offset that decline by generating more assists at even strength. He recorded 55 even-strength points last season, giving him a strong foundation that does not depend entirely on special teams.
Jason Robertson Career NHL Stats
| Type | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 456 | 213 | 277 | 490 | 117 |
| Playoffs | 62 | 23 | 29 | 52 | -6 |
Where Should Jason Robertson Be Drafted in Fantasy Hockey?
Robertson should be considered a late first-round or early second-round target in standard points leagues. His combination of goals, assists, shots and power-play production gives him a high floor, while his established 100-point ceiling provides league-winning upside.
He previously recorded a career-high 109 points in 2022-23, so reaching triple digits would not represent an unprecedented breakout. It would be a return to a level Robertson has already demonstrated he can reach.
In category leagues, Robertson is particularly valuable in formats that count goals, points, shots, power-play production and plus-minus. Fantasy managers in leagues that heavily reward hits, blocked shots or penalty minutes may rank more physical forwards slightly ahead of him.
The biggest offseason variable is his contract situation. Robertson filed for salary arbitration as a restricted free agent after completing his previous four-year contract. This projection assumes he reaches an agreement, avoids an extended absence and plays the full season with Dallas.
Assuming that happens, Robertson remains one of the safest elite wingers available. I would be comfortable building a fantasy roster around him, especially when selecting near the end of the first round.
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