Jake Guentzel is coming off the most productive regular season of his NHL career, but Fantasy Hockey managers should not automatically expect another statistical jump in 2026-27.
My projection has the Tampa Bay Lightning winger finishing with 37 goals and 49 assists for 86 points in 80 games. That would represent a slight decline from his career-high 88 points, but it would still make Guentzel a dependable early-round Fantasy Hockey option with legitimate 90-point upside.
The biggest reason to remain confident is his environment. Guentzel should continue receiving premium offensive minutes alongside some combination of Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel. He will also retain an important net-front and finishing role on a Lightning power play that can overwhelm opponents with movement, passing and elite shooting talent.
The arrival of John Carlson could make that unit even more dangerous. Tampa Bay general manager Julien BriseBois specifically identified Carlson as someone capable of filling the right-shot, first-pairing and power-play role previously occupied by Darren Raddysh.
Jake Guentzel’s 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey Points Projection
Guentzel recorded 38 goals and 50 assists for 88 points in 81 games during the 2025-26 season. He also generated 220 shots, scored eight power-play goals and converted 17.3 percent of his shots. Those numbers established him as Tampa Bay’s second-leading scorer behind Kucherov.
Here is my complete Jake Guentzel Fantasy Hockey projection:
| Fantasy category | 2026-27 projection |
|---|---|
| Games played | 80 |
| Goals | 37 |
| Assists | 49 |
| Points | 86 |
| Power-play points | 26 |
| Shots on goal | 215 |
| Projected scoring range | 78–94 points |
My weighted projection model places 45 percent of the calculation on Guentzel’s recent scoring baseline, 20 percent on his expected top-six deployment, 20 percent on his power-play opportunity, 10 percent on availability and five percent on shooting-percentage regression.
That model produces an expected scoring rate of approximately 1.08 points per game.
Why Jake Guentzel Remains an Elite Fantasy Hockey Winger
My personal observation is that Guentzel is one of the safest high-end wingers to evaluate because his fantasy production does not depend on only one type of scoring opportunity. He can finish Kucherov’s cross-ice passes, retrieve loose pucks, create chances around the crease and produce during five-on-five play.
Guentzel also understands how to find open ice when playing with elite puck distributors. He does not need to carry the puck through three defenders to generate fantasy value. He gets into scoring areas, arrives at the net at the right moment and quickly converts passes into dangerous attempts.
That skill set generally ages more effectively than a game built entirely around speed.
There are still reasons to avoid projecting a major increase. Guentzel’s 17.3 shooting percentage was excellent, and even a modest drop could cost him several goals. His career-high 88-point season also occurred while he received significant exposure to Tampa Bay’s most talented offensive players.
Carlson should help maintain the quality of the power play after signing a two-year contract with Tampa Bay. The veteran defenseman produced 60 points in 71 regular-season games split between Washington and Anaheim last season, giving the Lightning another proven puck-moving option at the blue line.
However, Carlson’s addition should be viewed as something that protects Guentzel’s fantasy floor rather than automatically pushing him beyond 90 points.
The most realistic outcome is another season between 80 and 90 points. Guentzel should challenge for 40 goals, contribute approximately 25 power-play points and remain valuable in leagues that count shots on goal.
I would be comfortable selecting him as a strong second fantasy winger. He carries a relatively safe floor of approximately 78 points, while continued chemistry with Kucherov and Point gives him an attainable ceiling in the low-to-mid 90s.
Jake Guentzel Career NHL Stats
| Type | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 681 | 306 | 353 | 659 | 100 |
| Playoffs | 81 | 43 | 38 | 81 | 8 |
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