Evan Bouchard has officially entered the fantasy hockey superstar tier, but managers should not automatically expect another 95-point season from the Edmonton Oilers defenseman.
My Evan Bouchard point projections for 2026-27 are 19 goals, 70 assists and 89 points in 82 games.
That would represent a six-point decline from his remarkable 2025-26 campaign, when Bouchard produced 21 goals and 74 assists for 95 points while playing all 82 games. His performance earned him a place on the NHL’s Second All-Star Team and established him as one of the most productive offensive defensemen in hockey.
A slight decline should not be viewed as a negative fantasy outcome. An 89-point season would still give Bouchard an excellent chance of finishing among the NHL’s top three scoring defensemen. NHL.com currently ranks him fourth among fantasy defensemen and 21st among all players for the 2026-27 season, placing him firmly in the second-round conversation in standard 12-team leagues.
Evan Bouchard Career NHL Stats
| Type | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 429 | 76 | 257 | 333 | 82 |
| Playoffs | 81 | 21 | 67 | 88 | 5 |
Evan Bouchard Point Projections 2026-27: Why 89 Points Is Realistic
Bouchard’s three most recent seasons illustrate both his enormous ceiling and the natural volatility that comes with projecting an offensive defenseman. He recorded 82 points in 2023-24, followed that with 67 points in 2024-25 and then exploded for 95 points last season.
For this prediction, I used an original weighted projection framework that places 50 percent of the value on last season, 30 percent on 2024-25 and 20 percent on 2023-24. That calculation produces an 84-point statistical baseline.
I then added a five-point role adjustment because Bouchard remains Edmonton’s undisputed first-unit power-play quarterback. He gets to distribute the puck to Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman while also possessing a point shot that forces penalty killers to respect him as a scoring threat.
Bouchard led NHL defensemen with 59 power-play shots on goal last season. He also finished with 221 total shots and averaged 24:41 of ice time, illustrating why his production is supported by opportunity rather than an unsustainable collection of secondary assists.
His projected 19 goals account for some regression from last season’s 9.5 percent shooting percentage. However, his shot volume and willingness to attack from the blue line should allow him to remain close to the 20-goal mark.
The 70-assist projection is where most of Bouchard’s fantasy value will continue to come from. Edmonton’s elite forwards create an unusually high number of opportunities for its power-play quarterback, and Bouchard has the vision and passing ability to turn those possessions into assists.
Evan Bouchard Fantasy Hockey Outlook and Draft Value
My personal view is that fantasy managers sometimes allow Bouchard’s occasional defensive mistake to influence how they value him. Those mistakes may generate debate among Oilers fans, but they do not erase his fantasy production.
Fantasy hockey rewards points, power-play production, shots and, depending on the format, blocked shots. Bouchard contributes in every one of those categories. Before his 95-point breakout, he had already produced consecutive seasons with at least 65 points, 200 shots and 100 blocked shots, giving him a valuable multi-category foundation.
I would draft Bouchard as a top-four fantasy defenseman and would begin considering him late in the second round of a 12-team league. His realistic floor is approximately 80 points, while his ceiling extends beyond 100 if Edmonton’s power play reaches another level and he remains healthy for all 82 games.
The primary risks are an injury to one of Edmonton’s power-play stars, reduced team power-play efficiency or Bouchard’s goal total falling sharply. Even with those concerns, his role is secure. His contract runs through the 2028-29 season, further confirming that the Oilers have committed to him as a central part of their championship window.
Final 2026-27 Evan Bouchard prediction: 19 goals, 70 assists and 89 points.
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