Let’s cut right to the chase because I know why you’re here. You want to know if Matthew Schaefer, the dynamic first-overall pick from the 2025 NHL Draft, is worth a spot on your fantasy roster this season. After a frustrating, injury-riddled draft year that saw him post an incredible 22 points in just 17 games for the Erie Otters, the hype is palpable, but so is the uncertainty. So, what’s the verdict?
From where I’m sitting, after hours of tape review and analyzing the Islanders’ system, I’m confidently penciling Schaefer in for a solid rookie campaign. Forget the noise and the learning curve arguments for a moment. This kid is different. My official projection for Matthew Schaefer for the 2025-2026 NHL season is 30 points.
That number might not jump off the page like a 50-point forecast, but for a rookie defenseman on a structured Islanders team, it represents significant fantasy value and a launching pad for future stardom. Schaefer isn’t just a puck-mover; he’s a puck-controller. He dictates the pace of play from the blue line in a way Long Island hasn’t seen in years. Watch how he uses his own net as a shield against aggressive forecheckers, buying that extra split-second before taking off. His elite skating allows him to traverse all three zones with deceptive ease, and his vision is already top-tier. He can make the simple, effective one-touch pass or hold onto the puck that extra beat to deliver an elaborate, defense-splitting feed.
Analyzing Schaefer’s Path to Power Play Dominance
The key to unlocking Schaefer’s fantasy ceiling—and the primary reason for my 30-point projection—is his inevitable deployment on the power play. The Islanders’ top unit is loaded with talent in Anders Lee, Bo Horvat, Jonathan Drouin, and the silky-smooth Mathew Barzal. What’s the one thing it’s been missing? A true, modern-era quarterback on the blue line who can walk the line, distribute with confidence, and get his shot through traffic.
While I don’t expect head coach Patrick Roy to hand the keys to a rookie on day one, it’s an inevitability. Expect Tony DeAngelo to start the year as the PP1 quarterback. But as Schaefer gains confidence and demonstrates his offensive prowess at the NHL level, the coaching staff won’t be able to ignore his game-breaking talent. Mark my words: by the time the Christmas decorations go up, Matthew Schaefer will be the man running that top unit. That deployment alone will be worth 10-12 points on his season total.
What Does This Mean for Your Fantasy Draft?
So, how do we translate this into a stat line? I’m projecting Schaefer to finish the season with 7 goals and 23 assists for 30 points. He’ll also contribute positively in shots on goal and power-play points, especially in the second half of the season.
In your drafts, treat him as a high-upside D4. Don’t reach for him in the early-to-mid rounds where proven commodities are available. But once you enter the back half of your draft, Schaefer becomes a potential league-winner. He has a higher ceiling than many of the veteran 30-point defensemen who will be drafted ahead of him. His value is in that upside. He’s the perfect target in rounds 12-15 of a standard 12-team league, offering a safe floor with the potential to wildly outperform his draft position if he seizes that PP1 role earlier than expected.
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The post Matthew Schaefer Point Projections 2025-26: The Rookie D-Man Poised to Shatter Expectations appeared first on NHL Trade Rumors.
