Is Matthew Knies the most underrated breakout candidate in fantasy hockey for the 2025-26 season? After a solid 58-point campaign, many are pegging him for simple, modest growth. I’m here to tell you that’s not just a safe bet—it’s the wrong one. The data, the eye test, and one massive, game-changing factor all point to a significant leap forward for the bruising Leafs winger.
Forget a slight bump in production; we are looking at a bona fide breakout that could make him one of the most valuable mid-round draft picks. The key isn’t just his development; it’s his deployment. Specifically, a golden ticket to one of the most lethal power plays in the entire NHL. For those of you paying close attention, the signs are already there. Knies isn’t just getting better; he’s about to get the opportunity of a lifetime.
Knies is Set to Capitalize on a Premier Opportunity
Let’s rewind to last season: Matthew Knies quietly put together an impressive sophomore campaign, potting 29 goals and 29 assists for 58 points in 78 games. That’s a fantastic foundation. He proved he could hang, using his 6’3″ frame to win battles along the boards and establish a net-front presence that the Leafs desperately need. He showed us the skill, the grit, and the scoring touch. But what we saw was Knies operating at a fraction of his potential ceiling.
The primary catalyst for his upcoming offensive explosion will be his cemented position on the Maple Leafs’ top power-play unit. Throughout last season, he saw sporadic time with the top group, but heading into 2025-26, all indications point to him being the go-to net-front man alongside Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Morgan Rielly. This isn’t just an upgrade; it’s like going from driving a sedan to being handed the keys to a Formula 1 car.
Think about the sheer gravity those four players command. Defenses will be stretched thin trying to contain Matthews’ shot, Nylander’s creativity, Tavares’ veteran savvy, and Rielly’s quarterbacking from the point. Who does that leave with a defensive mismatch down low? Matthew Knies. His job will be simple but incredibly lucrative for fantasy owners: win puck battles, create chaos, screen the goalie, and bury the high-danger chances created by his superstar linemates. It’s a role he was born to play, and it’s a recipe for a massive spike in production.
Projecting the 2025-26 Season Totals
So, what does this all translate to on the scoresheet? I’m locking in a significant step forward for Knies, projecting a point total of 67 points over a full 82-game season.
Projected Stats: 33 Goals, 34 Assists, 67 Points
A jump to 33 goals is more than achievable. At least 10-12 of those could easily come with the man advantage, simply by being in the right place at the right time. The assists will follow naturally, both from cashing in on rebounds and from smart cycle work at even strength. Playing a full 82-game slate, combined with this premier power-play role, makes a 65+ point season not just a possibility, but a probability. Knies has the talent, and now he has the golden opportunity. Don’t be the fantasy manager who sleeps on him come draft day.
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The post Matthew Knies Point Projections 2025-26: Why a 67-Point Breakout is Locked In appeared first on NHL Trade Rumors.
