The NHL goaltending market is notoriously volatile, and a recent signing has sent ripples through the league, directly impacting the Toronto Maple Leafs’ offseason plans. When Spencer Knight signed a three-year extension with an AAV of $5.83 million, it raised eyebrows. Knight is young and talented, but he has yet to fully establish himself as a dominant force in the league. For the Maple Leafs and the camp of their own pending UFA goalie, Anthony Stolarz, that number changes everything.
The immediate question becomes: If Knight is worth nearly $6 million, doesn’t Anthony Stolarz’s value start with a six?
The Spencer Knight Effect: Setting an Unexpected Benchmark
Stolarz’s camp is surely looking at the Knight deal as a key comparable. While Knight is being paid for his potential as a 24-year-old number one, Stolarz delivered results when it mattered most. By the end of last season, he was the undisputed number one guy for the Leafs, the goalie who earned the net for Game 1 of the playoffs. His stats were phenomenal, and he exuded a confidence that the team desperately needed. From a player’s perspective, it’s simple: “If he got that, I deserve that.”
However, the argument against a $6 million AAV is just as compelling. Stolarz, who will be 32 when his next contract kicks in, has never been a season-long number one at the NHL level. He played just 34 games last year, a number more typical of a backup or tandem goalie. While his performance was excellent, his injury history is a significant concern. Can you commit that kind of money to a goalie who hasn’t proven he can handle a 55+ game workload?
Stolarz vs. Woll: The Internal Complication
The situation is further complicated by the presence of Joseph Woll, who is currently making $3.7 million. Stolarz clearly outplayed him last season, and as a pending UFA, he has the leverage to demand a salary that reflects his status as the better goalie. He has to make more than Woll, but how much more?
Ultimately, the negotiation will likely land somewhere in the middle. While an AAV starting with a six seems unlikely given the games played and injury risk, a number starting with a four is highly probable. A deal structured as a four-year extension at around $4.5 million seems reasonable. This would give Stolarz a total contract value of $18 million—a significant payday that reflects his importance to the team without crippling the Leafs’ salary cap.
For Stolarz, this is likely his last chance at a major contract, so securing the highest total value is paramount. For the Maple Leafs, it’s about finding a number that rewards their regular-season hero while leaving a pathway for Joseph Woll to continue his development. The clock is ticking, as Stolarz’s camp will want a deal done now while his value is at its absolute peak.
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