So, you’re staring at your fantasy draft board, and Matt Duchene’s name is flashing. You remember the incredible resurgence: 82 points, a point-per-game pace, and a pivotal role in the Dallas Stars’ high-octane offense. He just inked a fresh four-year extension, locking him into a top-six role on a Stanley Cup contender. The immediate reaction is to smash the draft button, assuming a repeat performance is practically guaranteed. But is it really that simple? As a fantasy manager who has seen countless post-career-year players, I’m here to tell you to take a breath.
While the situation in Dallas is undeniably sweet, banking on another 82-point season from a forward entering his age-35 season is a risky proposition. The question isn’t whether Duchene will be good—he absolutely will be. The real question is, what does a realistic and successful encore season actually look like? Let’s dive into the data, the linemates, and the power play to give you a projection you can confidently take to your draft.
Breaking Down the Matt Duchene 2025-26 Projection
Let’s get one thing straight: Matt Duchene’s 2024-25 campaign was no fluke. He was a perfect fit for the Stars’ system, demonstrating remarkable chemistry and drive. His new contract eliminates any uncertainty, providing the stability that allows a veteran player to thrive. He’s insulated by elite talent, and fantasy managers should be excited about his deployment. However, the NHL is an unforgiving league, and Father Time remains undefeated. A slight, almost imperceptible drop-off in explosiveness or a few less puck bounces going his way is a natural expectation for a player in his mid-30s.
That’s why a carbon copy of his 30-goal, 52-assist season is unlikely. A more prudent projection acknowledges this reality while still respecting his elite offensive environment. He’s locked into a prime power-play role, and the unit in Dallas is nothing short of lethal. Imagine Duchene quarterbacking the half-wall, dishing to snipers like Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz, with the dynamic Wyatt Johnston creating chaos in the middle and Thomas Harley firing from the point. That setup alone provides an incredibly high floor for production. Duchene will continue to rack up power-play points, which will form the bedrock of his fantasy value.
Considering all these factors, a minor regression is the most logical forecast. He remains a must-own, top-tier fantasy asset, but we’re targeting a slight step back from his point-per-game heroics.
Matt Duchene’s Projected 2025-26 Stats:
- Goals: 28
- Assists: 49
- Points: 77
The Final Verdict for Your Fantasy Draft
Ultimately, Matt Duchene remains an elite fantasy forward heading into the 2025-26 season. While our projection of 77 points is a slight dip from last year’s magical run, it still places him firmly in the upper echelon of NHL scorers. He is a safe bet to be a 70+ point player with the upside for more if everything clicks perfectly once again.
Don’t mistake this projection for pessimism; rather, see it as a realistic benchmark that still makes him a fantastic selection in the early-to-mid rounds of your fantasy draft. He’s a high-floor, high-upside player on one of the league’s best teams—a combination that should have you sleeping soundly all season long.
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